Lutter contre la fuite des capitaux dans les pays pauvres
Après Swiss Leaks, il faut aussi lutter contre la fuite de capitaux dans les pays pauvres
Le Monde.fr | 23.02.2015 à 17h21 • Mis à jour le 27.02.2015 à 12h10<
Par Denis Cogneau, directeur de recherche à l’Institut de Recherche pour le Développement et à l’Ecole d’Economie de Paris
Le 9 février dernier, les journalistes du Monde et leurs collègues de l’ICIJ divulguaient des données provenant d’un fichier de comptes bancaires de la filiale suisse de HSBC. Même s’ils ne concernaient qu’une seule banque dans un seul pays, les montants ont paru à beaucoup très significatifs. Dans les pays riches, on s’est indigné à nouveau d’une évasion fiscale sans complexe. Cependant l’opération « Swiss Leaks » attire aussi l’attention sur la fuite de capitaux en provenance de nombreux pays pauvres.
Certes, les données publiées conservent un degré de flou. L’utilisation de sociétés-écrans et de prête-noms font que mesurer la fuite de capitaux réclame les talents d’un Sherlock Holmes.
Plus de 60% des montants, comme des clients repérés, ont pu être reliés aux pays riches de l’OCDE. Seulement 2% de ces montants correspondent à l’Afrique Sub-Saharienne, et 3% à l’Afrique du Nord. L’idée que les banques suisses sont remplies des fortunes d’oligarques ou de maffieux africains tient donc du fantasme. Ces proportions sont d’ailleurs cohérentes avec les données plus générales sur l’origine géographique des fortunes détenues en Suisse, ou avec celles sur les dépôts bancaires publiées par la Banque des Règlements Internationaux.
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Deux années d’épargne
Toutefois, si l’on rapporte les montants affichés pour les années 2006-2007 au revenu domestique (PIB) de chaque pays, quatorze pays africains figurent dans les trente premiers du classement : le Maroc, l’Egypte et la Tunisie, mais aussi l’Erythrée, le Zimbabwe, le Burundi, le Kenya, la Sierra Leone, les deux Congo, le Tchad, le Mali, le Sénégal et Madagascar. Le premier pays pauvre d’Asie, le Pakistan, n’arrive qu’en cinquantième position.
Sachant que le taux d’épargne de ces pays est faible, les montants HSBC représentent à eux seuls près d’un vingtième de l’épargne dégagée en une année par le continent africain. Gabriel Zucman, de la London school of economics, estime qu’un tiers des patrimoines africains est susceptible de se trouver dans des comptes offshores, et un cinquième des patrimoines latino-américains. Selon les économistes James Boyce et Léonce Ndikumana, la fuite de capitaux en provenance d’Afrique sur la décennie 2000 a pu représenter environ deux années d’épargne.
Bien sûr les sorties de capitaux des pays en développement ne sont pas toutes illégales, ni issues de revenus illicites. Par ailleurs, ces capitaux s’investissent aussi hors des paradis fiscaux, par exemple en France. Dans un travail récent avec Léa Rouanet (Ecole d’économie de Paris), nous montrons qu’en ce qui concerne le capital immobilier en France, les anciennes colonies françaises d’Afrique se classent en tête des propriétaires résidant à l’étranger, lorsque la valeur des logements est là encore exprimée en proportion du revenu du pays. Tous les logements concernés ne sont pas « mal acquis », mais certains le sont sans doute. Une fraction appartient par ailleurs à des français expatriés.En savoir plus sur http://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2015/02/23/apres-swiss-leaks-il-faut-aussi-lutter-contre-la-fuite-de-capitaux-dans-les-pays-pauvres_4581859_3232.html#zhTJRYkfB1vi2JDB.99
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